Paul Dobson - Buzzberg

Date	Ticker	Direction	Thesis	Source
Feb 16, 2026	AMZN /MSFT	LONG	Amazon is on its longest losing streak in 20 years, and Mega Cap Tech is under pressure due to fears about AI spending returns and business model disruption. The market reaction is described as "shoot first, ask questions later." The editor argues that the idea of AI immediately displacing incumbents (like switching off Windows overnight) is unrealistic. The transition will take time, allowing incumbents with cash (Amazon, Microsoft) to adapt rather than die. LONG (Buying the dip on exaggerated disruption fears). Continued compression in valuation multiples if AI capex yields remain low.	Bloomberg Markets Japan Posts Anemic Growth as Takaichi Eyes Sp...
Feb 16, 2026	EMERGING MARKETS /AUD	LONG	Commodity market strength is lifting currencies in Latin America and Australia. Volatility in these markets is subdued compared to developed markets. The combination of a potentially weaker USD (due to Fed cuts back on the table) and strong commodity prices creates a "winning prospect" for carry trades and resource-linked currencies. LONG Emerging Market currencies and AUD. A resurgence in US inflation forcing the Fed to hold rates, strengthening the USD.	Bloomberg Markets Japan Posts Anemic Growth as Takaichi Eyes Sp...